Monday, March 19, 2012

Looking Down the Road

Looking into the future isn't really much fun. It has an edge to it that quickly makes those who dare to try to guess what will happen next look pretty foolish. Based on various methods of comparison and projection. We try to predict the future based on what has happened in the past. Very much like predicting what others are thinking based on our own understanding and experiences in similar situations. This will work to an extent, until you meet someone who is not working along the same lines as the average person (often these are people who establish the changes in the future). Another method is to allow a crowd sourcing method to bet on what will happen to a given set of circumstances in order to get an average and it tends to be correct more often than not. The things that are predictable are traveling along a given line of evolution. You can almost watch it evolve day to day as it follows the same lines as its predecessors and similar events.

One of the major problems is that it is easier to predict the evolution of one thing at a time. Technology for example has given limits and directions, so it seems to be easier to predict its future changes. Unfortunately nothing evolves in isolation. Predicting what people will do with the changes in technology is as important to the changes in technology as the technology it's self. So the issue is to predict what the changes will be and the uses they will be put too, which in turn drives the motivation for the next series of changes. For example we know that our desire to be more productive is pushing us to be able to talk and stay in communication with others while we are traveling, at home, at all times in many cases. In order to be more productive and communicate more. We will need to modify our vehicles to do more of the driving, while we are being productive. The automation or robotizing of our lives is in full swing so it seems easy to predict. But what happens next? Do we begin to desire more isolation or more control of exactly when and how and to whom we are in constant contact? Or will things continue to draw us into a mesh of full and open communications? No secrets, lies are not allowed to live? The population of the Earth is drawn ever closer together and the fear and ignorance are banished from existence forever.